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Film Theory: The ULTIMATE Guide to Predicting Oscar Winners -
Published: 3 months ago By: The Film Theorists

By: The Film TheoristsPublished: 3 months ago

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53, 583 Likes   1, 609 Dislikes

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How to Win an Oscar for BEST PICTURE! ►

So last year I helped Leonardo Dicaprio win Best're welcome buddy! This year, I'm focusing on someone more important -- YOU GUYS! Today, I'm determined to give you the PERFECT strategy for predicting the Oscars. Because every office has an Academy Award pool, and it's my job to win you some easy cash. So what's the secret -- watching the Golden Globes (which are tonight, btw) and the SAG awards? Not quite. Watch the Golden Globes to laugh at the antics of the drunk celebrities, but when it comes down to it, your strategy should be a bit more sophisticated. Don't worry -- I got you covered!

Twitter: @MatPatGT

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How to Win an Oscar for BEST PICTURE!

Isabella Taylor
'Isabella Taylor' 3 months ago
Heyyyy notification squad. You're awesome Mat!
Light Champ
'Light Champ' 3 days ago
Actors and actress earn the award and the everyone else earns bragging rights.
N7 petty
'N7 petty' 5 days ago
whoelse zoned out when listening halfway through and hearing some weird beat not realising?
Daniel Potter
'Daniel Potter' 5 days ago
13:01 Bill is creepy af... Ty MatPat for adding a new character to my nightmares! He's next to Bonnie, Ballerina, Sophie and Emily. Don't know if you know them... P.S: Love GTLive!!!! Continue to be awesome
'DragonKingDrake' 1 week ago
My friend predicted "La La Land" will win best picture AFTER the oscars ended
Valdemire Kreshnov
Want to know who is going to win at the Oscars? Just put your money on the one that fits this criteria: - Gay Lead - Female Lead - Oppressed Lead - Stereotypical Antagonist - Unoriginal Plot - Non Hero Movie - How progressive is the lead Actor There are few exceptions that deviate.
Rena Seay
'Rena Seay' 2 weeks ago
Mat pat do a film theory on bug hero 6
B-17 BAWMER???
Timo Beugelink
'Timo Beugelink' 2 weeks ago
did he mean a Phil theory?
Nikodimos Triaridis
'Nikodimos Triaridis' 2 weeks ago
I can see the confusion that would have spiraled out of this video for this year's ceremony already... "Ha! Suck it, Bill! La La Land won Best Picture! God, my prediction was right after all!! Thnak you Matpa-" "Wait, there's been a msitake! Moonlight won Best Picture!" "MOTHERFUCKER!!!!"
Carter Claphan
'Carter Claphan' 2 weeks ago
hi mat pat im theorizing about who is lemony snicket
Shadow Crew
'Shadow Crew' 2 weeks ago
will u do a theory when you have so much hard evidence that you dont say thats just a theory and its 100% true?
Molly Katherine
'Molly Katherine' 3 weeks ago
Thanks MatPat! I won my film class's predictions! I will think of you while eating my prize popcorn & candy, and use my free movie ticket 🙏🏼 god bless
Direct Havoc
'Direct Havoc' 3 weeks ago
It bothers me that during the intro he calls spiderman's Web string
Rosa Santolaya
'Rosa Santolaya' 3 weeks ago
'Tash' 3 weeks ago
Okay. Can we talk about how Matpats rouge one theory was SO MUCH BETTER than the actual movie end.
porky guy
'porky guy' 3 weeks ago
ever heard of *for your consideration campaigns?* It would be 100% accurate if we knew how many things and money they "gifted" the voters with, but the method you've presented is still pretty spot on :P (somewhat with statistics and such)
The Wanderer
'The Wanderer' 3 weeks ago
please do a part 2 of poppy
Ramne Berglund
'Ramne Berglund' 3 weeks ago
U Are The Best Around
'JackGordon' 3 weeks ago
Do a theory about what really happened during best picture at the oscars 2017
'TheKersey475' 4 weeks ago
You were mostly right, but the influx of new voters were just enough to throw off the Google algorithm.
'cobrakingofeart' 4 weeks ago
i can't believe Uno: the Movie didn't win best picture!
'Entertaincube' 4 weeks ago
7:15-7:16 SWAG
'Jimmeh' 4 weeks ago
Who's here after the Oscars
'ImSecondTooNone' 4 weeks ago
Wow MAT! the guilds were on the money
Calvin Malvin
'Calvin Malvin' 4 weeks ago
i Just checked google trends and moonlight was trending up while La La Land was trending down in February. PS another thing google trends is excellent at predicting is presidential elections.
Bert Riser
'Bert Riser' 4 weeks ago
Thanks MatPat! My wife has beaten me every year. I finally broke her winning streak.
'mestre12' 4 weeks ago
You gonna need to do a follow up video Mat. Even google got wrong on best picture.
'T Y' 4 weeks ago
Using advice from this video and some research, here were my predictions: CORRECT; Actress - Emma Stone, La La Land Supporting Actor - Mahershala Ali, Moonlight Supporting Actress - Viola Davis, Fences Directing - La La Land Animated Feature - Zootopia Animated Short - Piper Cinematography - Linus Sandgren, La La Land Documentary (feature) - O.J.: Made in America Documentary (short) - The White Helmets Original Screenplay - Manchester by the Sea Visual Effects - The Jungle Book Music (score) - La La Land Music (original song) - City of stars, La La Land INCORRECT: Best Picture - La La Land Actor - Denzel Washington, Fences Adapted Screenplay - Arrival I only did 16 categories this time but it turned out pretty good. I was unsure about Adapted I would've chosen Moonlight as my other option, and the other two were big surprises. Thanks for the advice matpat it needs a little more research but looks on the right path!
'SonofMrPeanut' 4 weeks ago
Here are the predictions I had going in, based mainly on this video's method. In attempting this, I ended up missing a bunch of smaller awards while getting all but one of the high-profile statues absolutely right. Incidentally those were the awards I did more Google Trends-tracking with. Maybe I need to expand that to the other categories next year. In the meantime, here are the guesses I had ready: Best Picture: Moonlight Best Actor: Denzel Washington (Fences) Best Actress: Emma Stone (La La Land, or LLL) Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Fences) Best Animated Feature: Zootopia Best Cinematography: LLL Best Costume Design: Jackie Best Director: Damien Chazelle (LLL) Best Feature-Length Documentary: I Am Not Your Negro Best Short Subject Documentary: 4.1 Miles Best Film Editing: LLL Best Foreign Language Film: Toni Erdmann Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Star Trek Beyond Best Original Score: LLL Best Original Song: “City of Stars,” LLL Best Production Design: LLL Best Animated Short: Pearl Best Live-Action Short: Timecode Best Sound Editing: LLL Best Sound Mixing: LLL Best Visual Effects: The Jungle Book Best Adapted Screenplay: Arrival Best Original Screenplay: LLL
'T2D' 4 weeks ago
I actually won my Oscar pool because of this.
Thiyashi Koththigoda
What if Bill from Accounting sees this video?
Nikodimos Triaridis
'Nikodimos Triaridis' 4 weeks ago
Well, I don't think ANYONE could have predicted the epic fail that occured in this year's Academy Awards ceremony
Laura Iturralde
'Laura Iturralde' 4 weeks ago
I trusted you man, I had a huge bet on Lala Land 😭
Trisha Pauline Dela Cuadra
The One and Only Kronos
Anyone else dissapointed in the results from this video?! The math seemed legit, but 46% is a very low percentage after so much investigation about the guilds, google and twitter trends. I don't know, maybe I messed up, but I recommend a follow-up video, Matpat.
Alessandra Hernández Yalta
Gdammit I followed every step and still lost to Bill from Accounting and it's arrogant smug! Thanks, Matpat.
Zoë Masterman
'Zoë Masterman' 4 weeks ago
Ty matpat thanks to u i got 17 out of the 24 predictions right and won $20!
Gavin Clark
'Gavin Clark' 4 weeks ago
You could either listen to this video's advice or just bet la la land... it got 14 nominations
- N1ckman21
'- N1ckman21' 4 weeks ago
Who's watching on Oscar Night 2017?
I'm actually trying these steps right now. Wish me luck!
Peyton DiGregory
'Peyton DiGregory' 4 weeks ago
The search traffic for la la land is wayyyyy off the charts
Isabella Westervelt
'Isabella Westervelt' 4 weeks ago
I did my ballot...I think we've got the win
The Mighty DragonWolf
Watching this episode again to fill out my ballot tonight.
Mr. Bulbasaur
So whats the prediction list based off of this for today?
Ashley Roland
'Ashley Roland' 4 weeks ago
your so good you definitely got a A in everything in school
Alex Tarau
'Alex Tarau' 4 weeks ago
Just check Google Trends right now. Lion is leading by more than 50% over any other movie.
Andrew Burks
'Andrew Burks' 4 weeks ago
According to google trends the winners will be Best Picture: Hacksaw Ridge or Manchester by the sea Best Director: Kenneth Lonergan or Barry Jenkins Best Actor: Viggo Mortensen Best Actress: Natalie Portman Best Supporting Actor: Dev Patel Best Supporting Actress: Nicole Kidman Best Original Screenplay: Manchester By the Sea Best Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight Best Animated Feature: Moana or The Red Turtle Best Original Song: Moana
Gabriel Giron
'Gabriel Giron' 1 month ago
Alright MatPat, I tried your method, and this is was I came up with. Best Actor: Ryan Gosling for La La Land Best Actress: Emma Stone for La La Land Beast Adapted Screenplay: Hidden Figures Best Original Screenplay: La La Land Best Director: Denis VIlenvue for Arrival Best Picture: La La Land Best Cinematography: Bradford Young Note that some of the Google Trends and awards for the Guilds and Critics Choice varied greatly. Remember: You saw it here first
'Pineapple25ski' 1 month ago
Mat you are gonna help me win my family's Oscar's competition, I'll update you all in a couple days
Ninja_gamin 02
'Ninja_gamin 02' 1 month ago
Hey has anyone done the research and wanna share it?
'TheKersey475' 1 month ago
So according to this video, the Oscar winners will be; Best Cinematography: La La Land Best Original Screenplay: La La Land/Manchester by the Sea (Tie at Critic’s Choice Awards) Best Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight/Arrival (W.G.A. and Oscars categorize them differently) Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Rose Maxson in “Fences”) Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Juan in “Moonlight”) Best Actor: Denzel Washington (Troy Maxson in “Fences”) Best Actress: Emma Stone (Mia Dolan in “La La Land”) Best Director: Damien Chazelle Best Picture: La La Land
'TheKersey475' 1 month ago
One flaw with the "Best Picture" theory for this year is that "Moonlight's" plain one word title might not account for people spelling it as "Moon Light" or just the generic term.
Kate McEwan
'Kate McEwan' 1 month ago
Slick Trademarc
'Slick Trademarc' 1 month ago
The WGA put Moonlight in the Best Original Screeenplay Category but it's in the Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars
Jaxel MS
'Jaxel MS' 1 month ago
Hey, a couple tips based on this video's advice: I checked google trends, and, though Moonlight may seem like La La Land's main competition, it's getting NO search traffic. Seriously, check right now, it's almost like no one is searching for it. Meanwhile, the only movie that's seemingly competing with La La Land's search traffic is (surprisingly) Hacksaw Ridge. In fact, today specifically, it beat La La Land's traffic. So, odds are, Hacksaw Ridge is gonna be the most searched by the night of the Oscars.
Nolan B
'Nolan B' 1 month ago
I used this strategy to the letter on this year's ballot and many of the categories are missing. You wrote them off under critic's choice award but the sound and visual oscars vastly outnumber the performance ones and so will make or break predictions, so they might also need to be analyzed further than "Oh just mark down the critics' choice". Also as far as i can tell Singman hasn't run his model this year and best animated picture is a tough call
Sillydude 164
'Sillydude 164' 1 month ago
this clickbait kinda film theory, the thumbnail saus HACK the Oscars, but this is PREDICTING the Oscars!?! Just a little nudge so you might have a chance of reading this and saying "hey! Why don't I change the thumbnail of this video do to clickbait!" Just a thought tht I might mention (WAIT I did mention this just now wat!?!).
Salami Puddin
'Salami Puddin' 1 month ago
Is the google trends step based on worldwide trends or those just in North America?
Sarah Houle
'Sarah Houle' 1 month ago
I'm gonna be honest here, I feel like a piece of media as a whole shouldn't be nominated for more than two awards per award show. Like a movie should only be nominated for two things, but actors can still have two nominations of their own. But like with the Grammys the artist and the album/songs get two nominations total. I just think some people's nominations are a few too many for something that's supposed to be celebrating its entire respective industry.
Jenna Arendse
'Jenna Arendse' 1 month ago
Cristian Delgadillo
'Cristian Delgadillo' 1 month ago
So seriously though for those who do have an oscar competition, who are the possible winners?
Maggie Wainwright
'Maggie Wainwright' 1 month ago
All Murder
'All Murder' 1 month ago
I think there some deeply buried resentment against Bill here
Legendary Destroyer
'Legendary Destroyer' 1 month ago
My name is Bill and I work at accounting! :(
Doggie The Dog
'Doggie The Dog' 1 month ago
Unauthorized Genocide
7:15 Swagga
Gerard Fuckin Way
'Gerard Fuckin Way' 1 month ago
'thegamingdonut' 1 month ago
The real video starts at 9:58.....
Peter Gao
'Peter Gao' 1 month ago
Lol that subtitle at the end tho.
brown begerson
'brown begerson' 1 month ago
Angry Birds Not Sponcored😂
Stormy skies
'Stormy skies' 1 month ago
I have a question. do you think you could do a Film Theory on the movie 'Inspector Gadget'? Like a theory on what they do in the movie is humanely possible??
Lando 530
'Lando 530' 1 month ago
Why quality not HD....
Murat Mutlu
'Murat Mutlu' 1 month ago
The Legend Epic_Sama
Anyone else notice the subtitles at the end
'NinjaKIngAce' 1 month ago
I clicked on this video because of Deadpool. Anyway, everyone knows the Oscars are won by whoever campaigned the most.
Derpinator Meepling
'Derpinator Meepling' 1 month ago
At 9:55 when the computer slammed down I started hearing music playing wondering where he was going with it and after 2 minutes I realized that my headphones paused the video and started playing music. Was perfect timing for that to happen.
Buddog88 Gaming
'Buddog88 Gaming' 1 month ago
At 8:24, 40 Oscar statues were shown instead of twenty. Ocd...such ocd...
Andrew Westerlund
'Andrew Westerlund' 1 month ago
All the best movies have subtitles. You should know this MatPat, for this is film theory, not game theory.
Your mommys grandad
'Your mommys grandad' 1 month ago
Puppy monkey baby
Larkin Watches Stuff
My school has no person like that but after watching this video it is me.
JellyNutShell Gamer
'JellyNutShell Gamer' 1 month ago
Needs more Текущая
'Weredog53' 1 month ago
This video is better than the actual Golden Gold
Joel Curtis
'Joel Curtis' 1 month ago
Deadpool should have won everything.
Carrie S
'Carrie S' 1 month ago
That "woop woop" kinda scared me
'MegaSuperab' 1 month ago
William Wright
'William Wright' 1 month ago
Why do you hate Bill so much?!
J. Matthew Barnes
'J. Matthew Barnes' 1 month ago
MatPat: You forgot the best predictor...Vegas odds!
Miranda Johnson
'Miranda Johnson' 1 month ago
I find his intro song so satisfying
'WillfulVisions' 2 months ago
So wait... that's it? You get a little under half marked down based on other awards and just guess the rest with twitter and google? Couple that with the fact that twitter doesn't have a good tool for analytics and you're going to be losing to Bill from accounting. Just saying. We need a better guide for the obscure categories like 'Sound Mixing'.
'Dafaria' 2 months ago
Can someone here list off the predictions for the Oscars once they have followed these steps? Would be much appreciated, I'm too lazy to do so. :P
Abby Lynn
'Abby Lynn' 2 months ago
Ya know what you should do an episode on..... strange things
/. Maddox1000 .\
'/. Maddox1000 .\' 2 months ago
kill noobtube
Brandon Rankin
'Brandon Rankin' 2 months ago
But how would you predict foreign films and short films? Or Make-up? Or costumes? Those are the truly difficult ones and you don't talk about them! I am so lost!!
Faith Moreno
'Faith Moreno' 2 months ago
That hurt MatPat, because I genuinely hoped that you were right about Rogue One...
Brutus The Prey
'Brutus The Prey' 2 months ago
i think i go agents the recency effect...
Blueberry The Fox
'Blueberry The Fox' 2 months ago
bro plz stop the music it is kinda destrackting
'SonofMrPeanut' 2 months ago
Additional Statistic: Since 2001 when the Academy Awards started offering it, the Annie Awards chose the Best Animated Feature winner 69% of the time.
for irony
'for irony's sake' 2 months ago
Fuck you, Bill.
Stefano Gallo
'Stefano Gallo' 2 months ago
7:49 "OoooohWeee, Mr. Poopy Butthole!"
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